National AIDS Control Organisation (NACO) estimates that HIV/AIDS prevalence increased by 47% since 1998. Although these estimates indicate that new HIV infections in India do not seem to be on the rise, actual data on new HIV infections in India are not available. One way to approximate the number of new HIV infections in India is to apply India’s share of the global total of people estimated to be living with HIV/AIDS (13%) to the global total of estimated new HIV infections (5 million), yielding an estimate that more than 600,000 Indians were newly infected with HIV last year.

India’s share of people living with HIV/AIDS has grown as a proportion of global HIV/AIDS prevalence, rising from 11% at the end of 2001 to 13% at the end of 2004. Similarly, India’s prevalence as a proportion of South/South East Asian prevalence rose from 67% to 72% over this period

NACO also collects AIDS case surveillance data from SACS but these data only provide a snapshot of the epidemic, given the delay in progression from HIV infection to an AIDS diagnosis and the large number of people living with HIV who do not know their status. This is the case in every country, including the United States.

U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC): A 2002 report by the NIC projected that by 2010, India could have 20 to 25 million people living with HIV/AIDS, the highest number of any country in the world

Eberstadt: Researcher Nicholas Eberstadt of the American Enterprise Institute modeled several scenarios to project the epidemic’s impact between 2000-2025. For example, he projects that life expectancy in India in 2025 could fall by 3-13 years, depending on epidemic severity

World Health Organization (WHO): The WHO estimated that HIV/AIDS caused 2% of all deaths and 6% of deaths due to infectious diseases in India in 1998. If current HIV/AIDS trends continue, by 2033, HIV could account for 17% of all deaths and 40% of deaths from infectious disease.13 The United Nations recently estimated that life expectancy gains in India are expected to be lower than they otherwise would be due to HIV/AIDS.

World Bank: A recent World Bank report examined alternate scenarios for expanding antiretroviral therapy in India, concluding that such an expansion is cost effective. However, without strengthened prevention efforts, the epidemic will not substantially slow.